Hello fellow numbers individuals!
I’ve a twist on a easy odds downside that for some cause, my mind melts as an alternative of fixing it.
Odds of guessing a quantity between 1/10000 = 1/10000
Odds of guessing a quantity that falls between (1-5000) with a quantity set of 10000 = half
Odds of guessing a quantity that falls between 1-4749 with a quantity set of 10000 = 4749/10000
Odds of being proper twice in a row 4749/10000 = 4749^2/10000^2
Odds of being fallacious 14 instances in a row 5351^14/10000^14
SUUUUPER unlikely to be fallacious 14 instances in a row. However what should you tried 1000’s of instances?
What occurs if you strive solely 100 instances? is the probability actually % x 100? You may't get 14 fallacious in a row in case your 87th guess is right… so is it:
(5351^14/10000^14) x 9987 ? = ~1.575. That doesn't appear proper in any respect. Is that this saying that you just'd guess fallacious 14 instances in a row 1.575 instances out of each 10,000 makes an attempt?
Thanks upfront to your mathy kindness.
submitted by /u/drsmith-42